It’s been a theme of the 2018 Battle 4 Atlantis for the Wisconsin Badgers — facing familiar foes.
That will happen again on Thursday as the No. 25 Badgers meet the No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers in the tournament championship game.
Wisconsin and Virginia will meet for the fourth time since 2012. Virginia has an advantage in the series at 2-1 in that timeframe, as former Green Bay Phoenix great and Badger assistant coach Tony Bennett has led the Wahoos to the top of the ACC heap.
It’s also a matchup of two of the favorite teams according to analytics so far this season.
Virginia ranks 4th in the country according to KenPom.com, while the Badgers are No. 11 in the nation themselves. It’s the biggest matchup to date for both teams.
So, what gives in a matchup between two teams that are so used to meeting in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?
Let’s preview the 2018 matchup, shall we?
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 5-0 (0-0 B1G)
Head Coach: Greg Gard, 3rd full season at UW and overall (62-36 overall, 31-23 B1G)
Notable: Last time out the Badgers shot 63.6 percent from beyond the arc, a day after making just 1 of 8 from the three point line. To date, the Badgers are 13th in the nation in three-point shooting at 44.8 percent for the year to date.
Probable Starters (stats):
G – D’Mitrik Trice – 19.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.6 apg
G – Brad Davison – 9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg
F – Khalil Iverson – 5.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.0 apg
F – Nate Reuvers – 8.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.8 apg
C – Ethan Happ – 17.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 5.6 apg
Virginia Cavaliers
Record: 5-0 (0-0 ACC)
Head Coach: Tony Bennett, 10th season at UVA & 13th overall (221-86 at UVA, 290-119 overall)
Notable: Virginia has loved its holiday tournament appearances as of late. It will be going for its sixth straight tournament title after previously winning the NIT Season Tip-Off, Emerald Coast Classic, Charleston
Classic, Barclays Center Classic and Corpus Christi Challenge.
Probable Starters (stats):
G – Ty Jerome, Jr. — 14.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.4 apg
G – Kyle Guy, Jr. — 12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg
G – De’Andre Hunter, So. — 16.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.8 apg
G – Braxton Key, Jr. — 7.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg
F – Mamadi Diakite, Jr. — 7.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg
Matchup to Watch: The Backcourts
Wisconsin sees an opponent that may actually play right in to its hands for the first time this season…at least in terms of how they line up. The Badgers will have a massive advantage down low, but they also face a Virginia opponent built on guard play alone.
That may tell us Ethan Happ is in line for a big game, but I can see a lot of four-guard play for the Badgers along with Happ or Reuvers anchoring things inside.
So far this season, playing the foursome of Brad Davison, Kobe King, Brevin Pritzl and D’Mitrik Trice has been to the Badgers advantage. King, Pritzl and Trice have all managed to score career highs at some point this season and Davison has hit double figures twice as well.
While the height of some of the “guards” Virginia will play with could give UW’s backcourt some problems in terms of guarding and shooting over them, the ability of this group to slash to the basket and to stretch the bigger players out of the inside is going to be huge.
UW also can’t turn the ball over, something this group of guards has been better at this year than last.
Virginia and Wisconsin will meet their equal on the defensive end and whichever group of guards can limit mistakes and figure out the game quicker will give their team an advantage.
Prediction:
Virginia 64, Wisconsin 60
This is going to be a big test for the Badgers, who failed last year in scoring just 34 points. However, this season, UW has done much better against teams that have made one part of the game a focus.
Look for Trice to be a difference maker for the Badgers, but what scares me in this matchup is Wisconsin has had to rely on streaky shooting. That plays right in to Virginia’s hands and I smell a furious 2nd half comeback coming up just a bit short for the Badgers.
Season Predictions Record: 5-0