The two most successful programs in the Big Ten over the past 20 years meet for just the second time in the Big Ten championship this Saturday. Yes, the Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes tangle with a Big Ten championship and a potential berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.
Wisconsin’s scenario is easy, win and the No. 4 Badgers are in. The only question would be would they move up and go to the Rose Bowl or not?
Ohio State, well a win over the Badgers helps, but they would also need some help from another expected conference champion to lose and have a better resume on paper than some other teams in front of them.
Even though the scenarios are very different, these two coaches are likely to have their charges laser focused on the task at hand. But, how do u separate teams who got to this point in very different ways? There’s no better way than to dive in to the numbers and see what comes out.
Here are the stats, notes and everything else in between that you need to know ahead of the big matchup on Saturday night.
1: Ohio State, not Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in rushing offense
While all the attention seems to be on Wisconsin’s star freshman running back Jonathan Taylor, it is the Buckeyes who have been the more dominant team on the ground this season. Ohio State averages 250.3 yards per game on the ground. It helps when you have two running backs that combined for nearly 1,700 yards and a quarterback who put up another 600-plus yards as well.
Ohio State’s own freshman sensation, J.K. Dobbins was second in the Big Ten to Taylor with 1,190 yards and his 7.2 yards per carry average topped the league. So don’t think the Badgers are the only team that can run the ball heading in to Saturday night.
Now that’s not to say the Badgers are slouches on the ground game front either. UW was second in the league with an average of 243.2 yards per game as well. In fact, the two were the only teams in the Big Ten to average over 200 yards per game on the ground in the Big Ten.
2: That’s the number of times the Badgers have trailed in the second half this season
Wisconsin has trailed in the second half just twice (vs. Northwestern and vs. Michigan) for a total of 8:49. The Badgers have not trailed in the fourth quarter of any game. It’s all part of the narrative of the Badgers as a second half team.
The formula has been simple, try to jump out to a lead early or keep the game close early and then continue to pound away until opponents give up. What will be interesting to see is if the Badgers second half dominance can continue. Ohio State actually has given up more points in the second and third quarters (69 each) than in the first or fourth. Those are the two quarters were the Badgers ramp things up — going from 86 points this season in the 1st quarter to 106 in the 2nd, 108 in the 3rd and 118 in the final stanza.
Combine that with a Badgers defense that clamps down over time and you can see how teams falter against the Badgers. Will that scenario continue to play out in Indy?
3: This will be Ohio State’s 3rd Big Ten championship game appearance
OSU has only been eligible for six of the seven Big Ten title games played, and they’ve been able to make it to three of them so far. It’s been a mixed bag for Urban Meyer’s crew though. Michigan State took them down 34-24 in the first meeting, while the next year was the infamous 59-0 beating of the very same school they’ll see across the field from them on Saturday — Wisconsin.
Both sides have downplayed that 2014 game, and rightfully so given it was four years ago and no one of consequence in this game was of consequence on either side of the field in that 2014 game.
Still, this is Ohio State’s chance to get over the .500 mark in Big Ten title games.
4: OSU is fourth in the Big Ten in turnover margin
Turnovers can easily decide big games, and the Buckeyes found that out the hard way in a visit to Kinnick Stadium about a month ago. However, this has been a season of razor-thin margins in terms of turnovers across the Big Ten. Case in point, Ohio State is just +3 on the turnover margin this season and yet they rank 4th in the conference alongside Purdue in that category.
Ohio State has been alright at taking the ball away, forcing 18 turnovers, but they haven’t given up the ball much either, ranking third in the Big Ten with just 15 turnovers given up. With the Badgers defense so prone to pouncing on mistakes and the unknown situation at quarterback for the Buckeyes, look for turnovers to play a key role in this game.
5: That is Ohio State’s rank in sacks coming in to this game
Greg Schiano was supposed to be off for the Tennessee Volunteers head coaching gig by now, but we’ll save that story for another day. His defense has been turning up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks all season long, resulting in 34.0 sacks and a fifth place finish in the Big Ten. Nick Bosa earned Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year following the regular season, putting up a team-best 6.0 sacks and amassing 12.5 tackles for loss.
Wisconsin’s offensive line isn’t going to be easy to crack though, despite a relatively immobile quarterback. The Badgers finished first in the Big Ten for sacks allowed, with just 17.0 on the year. Getting to Hornibrook is going to be vital, but it won’t be easy.
6: That is the number of 10-win seasons in a row for the Buckeyes
All six of those 10-win seasons in a row have come under the tutelage of Urban Meyer not coincidentally. Meanwhile, the Badgers come in to this game riding a big 10-win season streak of their own, owning four of those seasons in a row. That mark is a school record for Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes’ six-straight is also a school record.
We’re getting these two programs at the best they have ever been, will it mean a good game on the field though?
7: Wisconsin is just seventh in the Big Ten in penalty yards this season
In a game where strength is going on strength, sometimes the weaknesses matter too (if you can find them). One area of weakness for the Badgers this season has been penalties. Wisconsin’s 5.5 penalties per game aren’t a terrible number, but when the Badgers are committing said turnovers, they are costly. UW is giving up over 50 yards per game in penalties. It simply can’t afford to do that against the Buckeyes.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is perhaps the worst offender of the bunch. Not only do the Buckeyes commit 7.4 penalties per game, they also rank last in the Big Ten with those penalties costing 72.1 yards per game.
This is clearly an area to watch on the part of both teams.
8: That’s the number of opponents the Badgers have held to under 100 yards rushing this season
Earlier we noted the matchup between two of the bet rushing offenses in the country. Well, something may have to give for the Buckeyes and Badgers, because Wisconsin features the Big Ten’s best run defense. Not only are the Badgers holding opponents to just 80.5 yards per game on the ground, they have held eight of the 12 opponents faced under the 100-yard mark, including in each of the last four games. That 80.5 yards per game average also tops the country.
If Ohio State struggles to run the ball against the stingiest run defense in the land, can the Buckeyes win? That may be one of the biggest questions in this contest.
9: Jonathan Taylor has gone for over 100 yards in 9 of 12 games this season
There’s a reason Taylor is the Big Ten’s leading running back — consistency. He’s been over 100 yards in 9 of 12 games played this season and has only missed the 100-yard mark twice as a starter after rushing fo 82 yards in his debut behind Bradrick Shaw and Chris James. The other two came in Big Ten play, with one only because of an ankle injury keeping him out after the half. He still put up 73 yards on 12 carries in the win over Illinois.
Taylor only needs 120 yards to break Adrian Peterson’s freshman rushing record, and that would be well below his season average of 150.5. If he breaks it, will it also lead to a Badgers win?
10: Wisconsin has won 10 of 12 games this season by 14 points or more
Plenty of the national narrative surrounding Wisconsin this season has been about the Badgers strength of schedule, or lack there of. Of course there’s some merit to it, as they faced just three teams ranked when or after then played them all season long — Iowa, Michigan and Northwestern. However, the hallmark of a really good team is taking on a supposedly bad schedule and dominating it.
That’s what the Badgers did this season, winning all but two games by two touchdowns or more. I’d call that pretty dominating football.
Then again…nothing has been good enough for most in the national media when it comes to the Wisconsin Badgers.
But, I digress. My point is, this team isn’t the 2017 version of the 2015 Iowa Hawkeyes. Wisconsin is blowing out teams it should beat and winning large against quality teams like Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan. That 2015 Iowa team snuck a perfect regular season by winning 7 of 10 games by 10 points or less…and 4 of those 7 games were by one score or less as well.
I only bring this point up to note that thinking this will be a razor-thin margin one way or the other seems unlikely considering what these two teams have put on the field most of the year. That’s especially the case should it be Wisconsin taking home the win.
Who wins, and how do we see the game playing out?
Tune in to the talking10 Podcast from this week and find out all that information and our exclusive All-Big Ten 1st and 2nd team reveal too.
What the Badgers need to work on in the bye week
Two games, two victories, two shutouts and two record-setting performance. It would be easy to think the 2-0 Wisconsin Badgers football team is riding high in to its early bye week.
But, with the challenge of the Michigan Wolverines just around the corner things are not exactly going to go as planned.
So, with a week off to prepare what are some of the areas of concentration and concern heading in to the matchup with the Wolverines?
I feel like this is a mantra of any team on a bye week, but after only two games it shouldn’t be that bad. But, guess what, Wisconsin is two games in to the season and the injury gods have not been kind to this team.
On Sunday, we learned that starting safety Scott Nelson will miss the rest of the season with a leg injury.
Late last week we knew that five other players were going to miss the Central Michigan game, with two of those being starters on defense in Bryson Williams and Izayah Green-May.
Now luckily, the depth of this team showed up as true freshman Keeanu Benton (1 TFL) played well in place of Williams and Noah Burks (2 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 pass break up) made it seem like there was nothing missing at outside linebacker.
But, there’s no question that playing with a full group of players against Michigan will be advantageous. Let’s see if the Badgers can get Williams and Green-May healthy and my guess is that they will be able to do just that with nearly three weeks of treatment and testing.
One of the things that has been clear so far about this team is that they have been playing with a lot of emotion and edge to them. It’s almost as if they spent an entire offseason stewing over a less-than-stellar performance in 2018 and are bound and determined to not let that happen again.
Whatever was bottled up in the offseason was certainly unleashed in the first two weeks of the season. Can UW find a way to continue to play with that edge and fire now that they have no game this week?
Sometimes the bye week can mess with a team, especially one that is rolling like the Badgers are. But, I have a distinct feeling that motivation and focus are not going to waver at all with this coaching staff in place.
Wisconsin also has the advantage of being the underdog in the matchup with Michigan (at least on paper it will) and has a ton of hungry young players looking to make a name for themselves.
What better way to do that than against Michigan with the whole college football world watching you?
This idea of staying hungry doesn’t worry me in the least, but it would be something to watch coming out of the gate against Michigan. If the Badgers look flat or out of sorts, I’d be worried. If not, then look for Michigan to be in some serious trouble on Sept. 21.
Early on this season, we’ve already seen a lot of Jonathan Taylor the running back, but we’ve also seen a lot of JT23 the receiving back and it has produced glorious results.
Even better is the fact that the Badgers coaching staff hasn’t had to get exotic with the play calling early on this season either. There’s been few sightings of Aron Cruickshank end arounds or double running back sets or anything crazy.
Wisconsin has lined up, punched the opposing defense in the mouth up front and done the basics needed to put points on the board.
It will be interesting to see what wrinkles will be added with the extra time and the opponent at hand. Will the Badgers break out a few things that Michigan won’t be ready for or will they stick to the tried and true and just see what happens?
If there’s one thing we know about Michigan’s defense is that it is nearly the Badgers equal in aggressiveness. Through two games the Badgers have allowed four sacks on the quarterback.
It may not seem alarming, but last season, UW allowed a total of 24 through 13 games for an average of 1.85 per game and that was a bit of a problem in bigger games. Furthermore, 12 of the 24 sacks came in Wisconsin’s five losses last year.
The good news seems to be that UW is going to get some help for the quarterback spot in avoiding some of those sacks this year. Jack Coan may not be a world-record sprinter, but he has shown to be more comfortable stepping up in the pocket and taking off if needed.
But, the Badgers were not really tested so far in terms of overall talent and did give up three sacks against USF in the opener. On the flip side, the offensive line looked much better against CMU and only one sack happened on the day.
Does that indicate improvement or just how bad the Chippewas were? With an extra week to work on things, lets see how the Badgers offensive line works through any potential issues and any adjustments that may be needed.
Sunday Morning Hangover: What to make of Coan’s confident start
By now, Jack Coan isn’t a total newcomer to the starting quarterback role for the Wisconsin Badgers. But, on Saturday he was making his first career start inside Camp Randall Stadium.
All five of his previous starts would come on the road or in a bowl game.
So, how did Coan handle the home crowd and it being a season opener at Camp Randall nonetheless? Judging by his record-setting numbers it was safe to say it was home, sweet home for the junior quarterback.
After passing for over 200 yards for the first time in his career last week against USF, Coan set personal records for passing attempts, completions, yards and touchdown passes in a single game.
It’s hard to get much better than that.
On the day, Coan would go 26 of 33 for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers were the catalyst to the Badgers 61-0 blanking of the visiting Central Michigan Chippewas.
His 363 yards were the fifth best in a single game by any Badgers quarterback. Coan also became just the 11th Badgers QB to throw for 300 or more yards in a game.
Additionally, his 276 yards in the first half were the most ever by any Badgers quarterback in a single half.
That’s some historic territory for anyone to reach.
However, after sleeping on it, I am still left wondering if this is a sign of things to come or a blip on the radar and we’ll never see this again.
Maybe it’s because I can still remember being there in person to witness Coan fumble and bumble his way to a loss at Northwestern last year.
Maybe that’s the Hornibrook affect in me too? After all, we got totally burned by thinking Hornibrook had turned a corner with his great performance in the bowl win over Miami two years ago.
Instead, Hornibrook reverted right back to the inconsistent and at times terrible version that his more extensive body of work told us was likely who he was.
But, here’s why I think we aren’t seeing a blip on the radar with Coan. It’s his confidence and the fact that we’ve seen him go out and do better each and every week he’s been a starter.
We are seeing progress, which we never really did with Hornibrook under center. If you can’t see that Coan is improving, then you aren’t paying attention.
Last week, despite the first ever 200-yard day for Coan, a lot of attention was paid to the missed wide open receivers on vertical routes. What did Coan do about it? He went out this week and showed he could confidently and accurately hit those deep balls.
“I think it’s important, and certainly we’ve got to be able to — we thought coming into the year we’ve got to do a better job of attacking the whole field, and so when you can do that, it’s good, but I think guys have had confidence in it,” said head coach Paul Chryst after the CMU win.
“I know last week we were 0-2 for those “chunk” plays, but he wouldn’t have cut ’em loose today if he didn’t have confidence in it. So I don’t know that doing it in a game makes you more confident, but it was good to see. It’s nice to be able to hit a couple of those, obviously.”
Additionally, Coan’s relationship early on this season with Quintez Cephus has been something special to watch. With virtually no playing time and no extensive practice time together, the duo has seemed totally in sync to start the season.
Cephus has nine receptions for 169 yards and two touchdowns through two games. He also is averaging 84.5 yards per game, good for fifth in the Big Ten in this early season.
Just to put the difference between Coan and Honribrook in to some perspective for you. Through two games last year, the Badgers had just 26 receptions as a team. This year, UW already has 50.
Wisconsin also has a total of 16 passes for 15 or more yards on the season. That is a quarter of what the Badgers had (64) all of last year and we’re only two games in to the season.
A.J. Taylor (8), Danny Davis (6), Kendric Pryor (6) and Jake Ferguson (6) have all had major impacts in the pass game too.
It means a diverse and talented group is producing quickly this season.
Of course, the challenge of Michigan’s defense awaits the Badgers offense and it certainly will be a step up in competition from the likes of USF and Central Michigan.
However, the Wolverines also won’t be seeing the same old Wisconsin offense they did for the past few years either.
What Coan has brought to the table through two weeks of play should make Michigan think twice about stacking the box against the run all game long.
Wisconsin finally has an outwardly confident quarterback and it feels so very good.
WATCH: Recap of Badgers 61-0 victory over Central Michigan
If you were to draw up a perfect game, well, it would be hard to top what the Wisconsin Badgers put on film on Saturday against the Central Michigan Chippewas.
UW ran, passed and dominated on defense en route to a 61-0 win. What should we take away from this game? What were the highlight moments?
Well of course, Jonathan Taylor scoring four touchdowns in back-to-back games was impressive. But, let our Publisher, Andrew Coppens, get in to the detail in this week’s talkinBadgers recap.
Don’t forget to subscribe to the YouTube page, so you don’t miss any of our video work as the season goes on!
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas: Preview, Predictions and Prognostications
We’re back with more in our video work for the Badgers 2019 season. As per usual, our Publisher, Andrew Coppens, is here to give you the lowdown on the matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Central Michigan Chippewas.
That means, key players to watch, key stats to keep an eye on and the weekly prediction.
He is 1-0 after nearly nailing the full score last week, so what does this matchup look like?
Let’s get in to the video.
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