Now that fall camp is in full swing and we are less than a month away from the start of the season, it’s a perfect time to also start looking ahead to what the Wisconsin Badgers opponents will look like.
We start our famous “Opposition Research” series with a look at the very first opponent on the Badgers schedule — the USF Bulls.
Don’t be fooled by the 0-6 finish to the 2018 season, this is a Bulls team that is very capable of playing at a very high level. After all, they did rip off a 7-0 start to the season before falling flat on their faces.
But, that was last season and what do we need to know about the 2019 USF Bulls? Let’s take a deeper look at them heading in to the season.
Biggest Storyline this Offseason: Coaching
Willie Taggart had the Bulls rocking as a program and then he took off for the Oregon Ducks job and is now back in Florida with Florida State. Can you blame him? Then USF had Charlie Strong fall right in to their lap as a great name to take what Taggart had built and at least maintain it.
That’s not exactly what has happened though, with recruiting taking a dip to the lowest marks of the last decade and an offense that fell apart with Blake Barnett dealing with injury issues.
So, this offseason, Strong decided to go a different direction with his offensive coordinator — hiring Kerwin Bell, who guided Valdosta State to the 2018 NCAA DII national championship. Gone will be the pass-happy spread attack and will be another innovative offense that likes to mix things up.
Bell’s offense at Valdosta State was a virtual 50-50 split between run and pass and that could be very interesting with the talent on the Bulls offense. The really good news if you’re a Bulls fan is that they have a lot of the same type of variety of skill players at both running back and wide receiver that the Blazers liked to take advantage of last season.
Does that mean instant success and change? Well, only time will tell, but there’s no question that as the offense goes, so too will the Bulls overall fortunes.
Biggest Strength: Secondary
With Charlie Strong as your head coach, defense will always be at the forefront of success. Yes, this team gave up a ton of yards and points last season, but it was on the field a ton more than it should have been thanks to the offense as well.
Despite the numbers, there is one area that is clearly the strength of this team and that’s the Bulls secondary. Three starters return, including safeties Nick Roberts and Mekhi LaPointe. Joining them as a returning starter is 6-1 cornerback Mike Hampton.
Roberts led the team with three interceptions, while Hampton and LaPointe combined for three more picks.
With Wisconsin’s biggest worry being the pass game, they are likely to get a test for a veteran secondary in Week 1.
Biggest Weakness: Linebacker
South Florida had just 29 sacks as a team last season and they just saw their leading pass rushers, Josh Black, graduate. He was just one ahead of most of the field though, with 5.0 sacks to his name and two more with 4.0.
However, only one of those three players return this season in defensive lineman Kirk Livingstone.
According to reports, former middle linebacker Greg Reaves is moving outside in the hopes to better use his athleticism in the pass rush. Reaves only had 0.5 of a sack last year, but did rank second on the team with 89 total tackles.
Outside of Reaves, this group is a lot of unknown quantities and the Badgers offensive line and dominant run game are going to be a severe first test.
Reason to Be Scared: Wide Receiver Variety
The Badgers biggest question mark on defense is just how much did the secondary grow last season. If it grew a lot from being thrown to the wolves, then it could be really good. If the growth is more slow, then it could be a very challenging year ahead.
But, one thing is for sure when looking at this matchup, USF’s wide receiver group provides a challenge for the Badgers secondary. Randall St. Felix is a shifty option, catching 33 passes for 679 yards and 4 touchdowns in his freshman season — all of which were tops on the team.
There is also senior Darnell Salomon, who was third amongst wide receivers with 25 receptions, but also caught 4 touchdowns. With Bell inserted as offensive coordinator, the versatility of this group could be a very interesting wrinkle in the mix too.
USF has speed, it has some size and it has some quality route runners back at wide receiver.
Let’s also throw in perhaps the second-best tight end in the country in Michael Wilcox too. All he did last season was catch a team-high 43 passes.
Point being, the Badgers won’t have it easy on the edges in Week 1 and whatever happens in that matchup could be a big time indicator of what will happen all season long for UW’s secondary.
Defense leads Badgers to win over Northwestern
It sure wasn’t pretty, but the Wisconsin Badgers took down reigning West division champions, the Northwestern Wildcats just the same.
UW’s defense came up big in the 24-15 victory. What happened, which players were the highlights and what needs to be worked on as the 4-0 Badgers go out of conference next week?
Our publisher, Andrew Coppens, comes to you with his full recap of UW’s win.
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Preview
Wisconsin comes in its fourth game of the season flying high off of an early season benchmark win over Michigan. Up next are the Northwestern Wildcats – a program that has been very competitive against the Badgers over the last decade.
Given that history and how this early season has played out for both teams, what can we expect from the Badgers and Wildcats? Will it be revenge for Jack Coan or will Northwestern get back on track after a 1-2 start to the season.
Watch to find out the names to know, the stats to keep an eye on and more.
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Wisconsin vs. Northwestern: 5 Things to Know
For many fans of the Wisconsin Badgers, the high of victory over Michigan has not worn off. After all, it is just the 16th time in the history of the series that that happened.
But, we’re turning the corner and looking forward to the next game.
That next game is a home contest against the Northwestern Wildcats, also known as the reigning, defending, Big Ten West division champions. Let’s just say what we’ve seen from the Wildcats in 2019 does not resemble anything that we saw in 2018.
Northwestern comes in to this divisional contest on the heels of a 31-14 drubbing by an equally troubled Michigan State offense and sits with a 1-2 record on the early season.
But, overlooking anyone in the Big Ten is a big mistake. So, what do we need to know about this upcoming matchup? Let’s look at the 5 Things to know.
5: Wisconsin has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in Madison
One thing we can always count on in the Wisconsin-Northwestern series is the home team winning, right? After all, Wisconsin has won 5 of the last 6 games in Madison and Northwestern is the same 5 of the last six at Ryan Field in Evanston.
During those last six home games against the Wildcats, Wisconsin is averaging 35 points per game and has given up an average of 14.5 points per game.
In those last six road games in this series, UW is averaging 12 fewer points (23ppg) and has given up an average of nearly 12 more points per game (23.6).
Good thing this one is in Madison, huh?
4: Is the single-game record for pass break ups for Northwestern
Why would this be relevant? Well, that record was just tied last weekend as Greg Newsome II recorded four individual pass break ups in the loss to Michigan State. It was also his career high.
According to the stats, Newsome is averaging 2.3 pass break ups per game as well and that puts him in the national lead.
So far this year, Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan has been remarkably efficient. He’s completed over 76 percent of his passes and has zero interceptions. Newsome is likely to go after the Badgers best performer in Quintez Cephus.
Who wins this battle could be a big factor in who wins the overall game on Saturday.
3: UW leads the country in opponent third down conversion rate
While advanced stats are all the rage, some of the old-fashioned stats are equally telling. One such stat can be third down conversions. Generally speaking, the fewer you allow your opponent to convert on, the fewer chances they have to score points.
It turns out, the Wisconsin Badgers are pretty good at it, allowing opponents to convert on just 10.5 percent of their third down chances so far this season.
The Badgers have allowed opponents to convert on just 4 of 38 attempts so far this season.
For reference, Ohio State is second in the Big Ten with an average of 23 percent. Second nationally is Kansas State at 16 percent.
Northwestern’s offense hasn’t exactly been good — converting just 18 of 48 attempts (37.5 percent) to rank 11th in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin’s offense also leads the Big Ten in 3rd down conversions at 56.4 percent on the season. That mark is also 7th nationally.
Let’s just say, third down has been Wisconsin’s down most of the season.
2: Northwestern’s Joe Gaziano is 2nd in all-time sacks
Know the name Joe Gaziano, commit it to memory and don’t let him get to the quarterback.
I’m guessing that is the message being delivered by offensive line coach and offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph this week and it is a wise move.
That’s because the senior Northwestern defensive end is on pace to become the best sacker of quarterbacks in program history. His fourth-straight season with a sack of Brian Lewerke last week put him tied with Ifeadi Odenigbo (2013-16) for second in Northwestern history with 23.5 career sacks and is now just 4.5 behind Casey Dailey’s program record of 28.
His task won’t be particularly easy on Saturday though, as UW’s offensive line has given up just five sacks in three games and that number has only gone down since the opener.
Wisconsin gave up three sacks to USF and since then has only given up one sack each to Central Michigan and Michigan.
If Northwestern can’t get pressure on Jack Coan and allows him to be comfortable in the pocket, it could be a very long day at Camp Randall for the visitors.
1: Wisconsin leads the nation in game control
What is game control, you may be asking? Well it turns out game control is the amount of time you are able to hold a 14 or more point lead during a game.
Through three games, the Badgers have been up 14 or more points for 76.6 percent of the time per SportsSource Analytics.
Yes, it has come against two bad opponents and a Michigan team that got its soul crushed by the Badgers. But, for a Wisconsin team that has been notorious for playing down to competition, this is about as good an indication of how good they have been as you will find.
Add in Northwestern’s offensive struggles and this game feels like it won’t look much like the competitive ones we’ve been accustomed to and that have some believing this game a rivalry.
Be wary of the trap against Northwestern?
It feels like the classic trap game, right? Wisconsin just dominated an opponent everyone seemed to think was better than them on paper and Northwestern is coming to Camp Randall.
I mean, Northwestern has just one win on the season and is coming off a 31-14 loss to Michigan State that wasn’t as close as the score would tell you.
Given the history of the Badgers and Wildcats this isn’t good news, right? This is your classic Admiral Ackbar moment:
Or is it?
Well, sure, you may point to the fact that Wisconsin has won five of the last six inside Camp Randall and the trouble has really been on the road, but may I remind you that Northwestern got the Badgers 13-7 in 2015 for a split of the last two games in Madison?
Let’s also remember that every year is different from the next, until it start to feel like all the others playing out right before your eyes once again.
Speaking of which, did I mention that Northwestern is notorious for slow starts to their seasons? See 2016 (1-3), 2017 (2-3) and 2018 (1-3) for reference and then see what they did the rest of those seasons.
Well, this year the Wildcats are 1-2 in games prior to their school year even starting.
It all should give Wisconsin some pause because it seems like the Wildcats are historically poised to break out.
But, there’s a big difference between most of those years and this year — in most of those years, the Wildcats were playing good football and just couldn’t find a way to win.
You can’t say that about the 2019 Wildcats to say the least and stats are our friend here.
Let’s just start with the fact that the Wildcats of 2019 have not found a way to score even if it would bite them in the backside. The passing game has just one touchdown to six interceptions, completing just 48.3 percent of its passes for 408 yards.
That’s Wisconsin 2018 levels of bad, if not worse.
Northwestern is also averaging just 15.7 points per game, dead last in the Big Ten. Even Rutgers has managed to score an average of three times a game (21.3 through 3 games).
Through the first three games of last season, Northwestern averaged 24 points per game and topped the 30 point mark in two games (a 31-27 opening game thriller over Purdue and a 34-39 loss to Akron).
In 2017, Northwestern averaged 32.3 points per game in the first three of the year and in 2016 the average points per game were nearly as bad as this year — at 17.3 points per game.
That 2016 season is one this team would like to forget, as they went just 6-6 on the regular season before winning their bowl game over Pittsburgh to eek out a winning season in the end.
On the flip side, the Northwestern defense has usually been able to be counted on. So far this year, they have given up an average of 20.6 points per game, putting them 8th in the league, but right around their averages for most of the past three years as well.
But, Northwestern has faced Stanford, UNLV and Michigan State — three offenses that have largely struggled to get going themselves this year.
Is the Wildcats stat machine an indication of a good defense or just bad offenses they have played against?
Well, we can go to the advanced stats to tell us just how different the Badgers and Wildcats have been this season. Let’s take a look at the plot chart of S&P+ for instance:
For those of you new to this type of chart and rating, the more lower and to the right you are, the better you are. The further to the left and up you are, the worse you are.
So, what you are seeing is the byproduct of just how bad Northwestern’s offense as been. They are way off to the left on this plot chart, indicating they are amongst the worst overall performing teams in the Big Ten.
When you are in the category of Rutgers, you are doing it wrong, oh so wrong.
Take a look at Michigan State, where their defensive rating is so good, but the offense has been so bad (up until last week against Northwestern ironically) that they are where they are on this chart.
Or how about Hunter Johnson, the former 5-star recruit to Clemson that transferred and was expected to be the savior of all things Northwestern’s offense in 2019.
Well, the advanced stats have him as one of the bottom 15 quarterbacks in average PPA.
On the flip side, the metrics have a love affair with Wisconsin right now.
One thing is for sure, we’re going to get an ornery Pat Fitzgerald.
Maybe Fitz will hire one of those experts to get his offense in gear? Either that or hold off for another week, because Wisconsin would like another week of you not figuring out how to advance the ball on offense.
Either way, expecting the normal Badgers vs. Wildcats craziness just shouldn’t be a thing this week. These two teams are going in very different directions and fast.
Does that mean the Badgers will take Northwestern lightly going in to Saturday? Since the majority of this team were on the field for Wisconsin’s soul-crushing loss in Evanston, you can bet they won’t be taking anything for granted on Saturday morning.
Just don’t expect this to be the classic trap game it has been for both teams in the past.
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