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Ohio State Buckeyes vs Wisconsin Badgers: Preview, Predictions and Prognostications

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When: Saturday, October 15; 8:00 PM ET
Where: Camp Randall Stadium; Madison, Wisconsin
TV: ABC
All-Time Series: Ohio State leads 55-18-5
Last Meeting: Ohio State won 59-0 (2014)
Line: Ohio State (-10)

Since arriving in Columbus back in 2012, Urban Meyer has accumulated an incredible 55-4 record, with losses coming to Michigan State (2013), Clemson (2013), Virginia Tech (2014), and Michigan State (2015).  Aside from his 2-2 record against Michigan State, Meyer is 32-0 against the other 12 Big Ten teams since he began coaching the Buckeyes five seasons ago.

Saturday night will mark the first meeting between head coaches Urban Meyer and Paul Chryst. Chryst was the offensive coordinator back in 2010 when No. 18 Wisconsin defeated then No. 1 Ohio State under the lights at Camp Randall Stadium, which propelled Wisconsin to win the remainder of its remaining regular season games in order to win the Big Ten regular season title and reach the Rose Bowl.

The Buckeyes will enter Saturday night in Madison as a top five rated team once again. The AP has Ohio State ranked as the No. 2 team in the country, and most analytic measuring sites have the Buckeyes pegged as the No. 1 college team in America, due to the fashion in which the Buckeyes are blowing teams out, paired with their signature road win in week three when Ohio State went south to Norman, Oklahoma and dominated the Sooners to a score of 45-24.

The Badgers will enter Saturday’s showdown as a top ten ranked team as well, coming in as No. 8 in the country in the latest AP poll listing. Wisconsin lost a hard-fought game against the Michigan Wolverines 14-7 back on October 1 before enjoying a much-needed bye week. The Badgers will need all hands on deck if they want to have any chance at upsetting the Buckeyes with College Gameday in town.

1 BURNING QUESTION: One Unit Has to Give — Ohio State’s Scoring Offense or Wisconsin’s Scoring Defense, Which Will it Be?

This will be the second opponent in a row for Wisconsin that averages over 50 points per game offensively (53.2ppg), which ranks third nationally behind Texas Tech and Louisville.  The Badgers have a top five scoring defense of their own, only allowing opponents to score 12.2 points per game, good for fourth in the nation in that category.

Back on October 1, the Badgers held another top 5 scoring offense in Michigan (50.0ppg) to just 14 points on the day. The Badgers will need a similar type of performance this Saturday if they want to upset the Buckeyes.

One thing worth noting here is that Wisconsin has faced some of the best pro-style offenses in the country in LSU and Michigan, but hasn’t yet been tested by a spread-the-field-type of offense that Urban Meyer utilizes in Columbus. On the other hand, Ohio State hasn’t faced a defense as good as the one they will face on Saturday night. Ohio State’s biggest test to date, Oklahoma, is allowing over 36 points per game this season, three times as many as the Badgers hold teams to.

With that being said, it is impossible to know how Ohio State’s offense will fare against the Badgers defense, the only thing we do know is that it will be the toughest test that Ohio State has faced on that side of the ball to date.

2 KEY STATS:

– 323.6 That’s the amount of rushing yards that Ohio State averages running the ball per game this season. Another opponent, and another elite rushing attack will be facing the Badgers defense. The Wisconsin defense is 3-0 in holding good rushing teams well below their average on the season. The Badgers held LSU to 126 rushing yards, Michigan State to 75 rushing yards, and Michigan to just 130 rushing yards. Something worth noting here is the Buckeyes have the added element of Quarterback J.T. Barrett being a threat on the ground, as he ran for 137 yards and a score on the ground last week against Indiana.

– 90.4. That’s the average amount of rushing yards that Wisconsin is surrendering to opponents in 2016. As mentioned above, the Badgers defense has been superb against the run so far this season. It is hard to imagine a scenario for a Badger win on Saturday that doesn’t include Ohio State being held well below their average on the ground.  If Wisconsin can disrupt Ohio State’s ground game and force J.T. Barrett to pass, Wisconsin will have a chance to force turnovers and give the ball back to the Badger offense. Barrett struggled mightily through the air last week, going 9 for 21 for 93 yards with a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception rate against Indiana.

3 KEY PLAYERS:

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State QB: Barrett is the key piece to the Ohio State offensive. His ability to spread the ball around to Ohio State’s talented play-makers as well as protect the football has been a key for the Buckeyes so far in 2016. If Barrett is able to play an efficient, low-turnover game on Saturday, Buckeyes fans will most likely be celebrating another big win in Madison.

T.J. Watt, Wisconsin OLB: The Junior linebacker leads the Badgers in sacks, and with Vince Biegel on the mend, his role as pass rusher/edge defender will be even more important to the Badgers defense. Last time a top ranked Buckeyes team came to Camp Randell with a Watt brother on the Badgers defense, J.J. had a huge day, corralling Terrell Pryor and sacking him multiple times. Little brother T.J. is hoping to dominate the game defensively just as his older brother did six years ago.

Corey Clement, Wisconsin RB: Ohio State is the only FBS team in college football to not allow a rushing touchdown so far this season. Corey Clement, who has scored five of the eight Badgers rushing touchdowns so far in 2016, will be looking to break through and give the Badgers running game some life after a gruesome outing against Michigan last time out. Clement is hoping that the Badger offensive line can provide some push up front, something that was lacking against Michigan. If the Badger offensive line is only able to open up a single hole on Saturday night, Clement needs to be ready to make the most of that opportunity to run to daylight.

4 STAFF PREDICTIONS:

Andy: Wisconsin 24-21
Dave: Ohio State 21-14
Phil H: Ohio State 24-13
Philip R-R: Ohio State 28-20
Zach: Wisconsin 21-20

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Chryst excited by Graham Mertz’s future with Badgers

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No recruit has ever been as hyped as quarterback Graham Mertz has been in Wisconsin Badgers history.

Normally that would lead to coaches tempering their words and expectations. Given head coach Paul Chryst’s history of exactly that, it was a bit surprising to hear him speak with excitement about what Mertz may bring to the table in Madison.

So far, Chryst has been very impressed with how Mertz is handling everything on and off the field.

“Yeah, Graham has got a great personality,” said Chryst at Big Ten media day on Friday. “I think he’s done a nice job of — he came in the spring, and getting to know our teammates, and I think he’s handling — there’s a lot of buzz and talk about him, and I think he’s handled it well, and I think the team has handled it, as well.”

What has impressed the head coach most about his freshman quarterback? Chryst says it is how he is handling everything that has been thrown at him since he entered school in January.

“They’re experiencing a lot for the first time, going to school and being away from home, and there’s obviously a ton of football with it, and I think all three have handled it, and Graham has handled it well, and I’m excited for those three, Graham in particular, that went through spring and then you have summer and now they’ll be able to go into fall camp and it’s not all new to them,” said Chryst.

“But I’ve been impressed with how Graham has handled himself, and I think he’s — again, cares a lot about teammates and is a good teammate himself, a good person, and I think that’s a great place to start.”

Perhaps the most telling statement from Chryst during his time at the podium on Friday, was the one where he actually used the words “excitement” and “Graham” in the same sentence.

“And certainly we’re excited, really excited about Graham,” Chryst said to the media. “He’s early in on the process, and so I like the group that we have. I’m thankful that we’ve got Jack coming back that’s played in games, and certainly looking forward to fall camp and seeing the growth and development of all of them.”

Does that mean Mertz is the immediate savior of the Badgers offense? No.

But, unlike years past, Chryst is at least willing to go out on a limb and live in the excitement of what could happen in the future.

This type of talk should only serve to continue to spark the speculation and the spotlight on the quarterback position in Madison in the next few weeks.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers quarterbacks in 2019

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Believe it or not, the start of the Wisconsin Badgers fall camp is right around the corner and we’re hitting the home stretch of our preview season as well.

Previous Positions:Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver | Outside Linebacker | Inside Linebacker |

No position has had more of the spotlight and taken up more of our conversation than what is happening at quarterback. After watching the QB play go from ok to disaster in 2018, it is back to the drawing board in many ways.

With Alex Hornibrook off to Florida State for his final season and the highest rated quarterback recruit in Badgers history on campus, this offseason has been full of intrigue.

But, what will the 2019 season look like for the most critical position on this offense? Let’s take a look at exactly that.

Best Case Scenario

The Badgers find out they hit the jackpot with Graham Mertz and he’s spent the time between spring and fall ball getting up to speed on the offense. Mertz immediately shows this is his job and the coaching staff sees it quickly as well.

Either that or Jack Coan comes in and commands the position and the offense with accuracy and an ability to hit the deep ball. The offense gels around him and heading in to the opener at South Florida, Coan is the man behind center by a wide margin.

Yes, there are two best-case scenarios at play. But, that’s because Wisconsin’s coaching staff would really love for someone to flat-out win the starting job early on in fall camp. Will that happen? That’s the million dollar question and don’t count out Chase Wolf from this competition either. He came on strong as spring went along and his abilities give the Badgers offense some different wrinkles that could be intriguing.

No matter whom wins the battle in fall camp, the best case scenario is that that person wins the battle early, the offense can focus on installing around that quarterback and said quarterback shows why he won the job with quality play during the season.

Worst Case Scenario

If we go in to week three of fall camp and there is no winner to the quarterback job, I’m not so confident in this group. Yes, it’s the job of everyone to compete at a high level, but the coaching staff not being able to separate between the bunch isn’t good news.

My worst-case scenario would be no winner coming out of fall camp, we see quarterbacks splitting time in the fall and this offense stalling out in the pass game once again.

Musical chairs at quarterback never seems to work at Wisconsin and that especially played out last season with Coan clearly thrown to the wolves before he was ready to make a full impact after Hornibrook’s injury.

As long as the Badgers can avoid having to play multiple quarterbacks because none of them have wrestled the position for themselves, UW’s offense should be in a better position in 2019 than it was in 2018.

Most Likely to Happen

As much as the fans want to see Graham Mertz come in and be this game-changing quarterback out of the gate, the most likely scenario is that Mertz gets some game action in the non-conference games and Jack Coan is your regular starter.

I can foresee the scenario playing out much like Coan’s true freshman season. The only difference being that Mertz won’t have to give up his redshirt to play in a single game.

It seems like the most likely to happen scenario is that Coan is your starter for the year with Mertz as the man getting the early season reps behind him and then Chase Wolf being the other option to get reps during conference play.

Let’s not forget that Coan is the only quarterback on this roster that has seen more than a complete mop-up duty. Danny Vanden Boom could be an option too, but it seems like Wolf and Mertz passed him up in the spring competition.

As much as Mertz is the future, coaches are paid to win games now and that likely means playing it safe with Coan.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers ILB’s in 2019

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We hope you enjoyed the Independence Day holiday, but it is time to get back to some business and that means continuing our series looking in to every position group for the 2019 Wisconsin Badgers.

Previous Positions: Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver | Outside Linebacker |

Since we went outside the last time around, today we will focus on a position that has long been a strength of the Badgers program — inside linebacker.

What could happen with this group in 2019? Let’s find out.

Best Case Scenario

Yes, the Badgers face life without an All-American and a steady veteran thanks to the graduations of T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly. But, the good news is that this group was one of the deepest and most productive overall last season.

Veteran Chris Orr will get one starting spot and former 4-star recruit Jack Sanborn will step in to the other starting role. So, the best case scenario for this group is that Orr, who started as a freshman, gets back to that kind of form, and we see quality play from a combination of younger players like Sanborn and freshman Leo Chenal.

No one had a bigger breakout this spring than Chenal did. He came in as an early enrollee, but well under the radar. By the end of spring ball, it looked very much like he won’t be redshirting and will be challenging for a lot of snaps in the fall.

It would be great to see that happen, because Orr has just one year left in the Cardinal and White.

Worst Case Scenario

What would really hurt this group is if Orr or Sanborn were to go down with an injury here. Yes, Chenal looked good in spring ball like I mentioned before and yes Mike Maskalunas has shown flashes of ability, but are they really ready to be thrust in to the majority of snaps at inside linebacker together?

Experience is an issue for this group and I could see an injury exposing that lack of experience in a big way. Even if the Badgers wanted to go with an older player, the only other option would be Seth Currens and he just converted from safety in the spring himself.

Other than that it would be Hunter Johnson or two walk-ons that were here in the spring.

The Badgers only inside linebacker recruit in the 2019 class was Chenal too, so there will be no more help coming in to fall camp.

Most Likely to Happen

The good news is that I don’t see the worst case scenario actually happening, at least not in a major way. Orr’s medical history suggests he could be prone to missing a game or two with a nagging injury, but don’t expect anything crazy to happen.

I also believe we will see the emergence of Sanborn and Chenal as the future of this position for the Badgers. In fact, Sanborn has looked so good in spring and in his limited playing time last season, that I suspect he could be a darkhorse for All-Big Ten honors at season’s end.

Look for this group to be a downhill, hard-hitting and more athletic group than we saw last season and that could make a major difference for those playing behind them.

Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard and his staff have a lot to figure out, but they should feel safe with the talent that is available to them at inside linebacker.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers OLB’s in 2019

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This time next month, the pads may be popping and the 2019 Wisconsin Badgers fall practices will be under way. It’s so close we all can almost taste it.

But, as we look forward to the 2019 season we’re going to try something a bit different. Gone are the usual ways of looking position groups and giving you a fall preview that last’s a week.

Well, that’s because this season is vital to the Paul Chryst era. There’s a changing of the guard going on. After a disappointing 2018 season that saw UW drop Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 15 years and not win the Big Ten West, the question is if that’s a sign of decline or a blip on the radar.

In order to best answer that question, we’re actually going to start with a look at what needs to happen, what the Badgers need to avoid and what is really likely at every position.

Previous Positions: Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver

Up today is a look at the outside linebacker position.

Best Case Scenario:

Last year, the outside linebackers contributed just 8 total sacks to a team total of 19. That’s a lot of contribution to the effort, but the effort was far below expectations set by previous groups. Additionally, the graduation of Andrew Van Ginkel means just 2.5 sacks return from the outside linebacker position in 2019.

Those sacks belong to Zack Baun, who got his feet wet as a starter last season and is looking for big things to happen in 2019. The good news is that Baun was one of Wisconsin’s best run-stoppers on the edge.

Ideally, Baun not only is a leader of this defensive group in 2019, but becomes much more disruptive behind the line of scrimmage too.

Wisconsin has a lot of potential that could start opposite of him. Former Alabama transfer Christian Bell, former 4-star recruit Noah Burks and former inside linebacker Griffin Grady all had their moments of shine in spring ball.

In a best case scenario, the Badgers have more than one of that group step up as contributors to an overall group of outside linebackers that don’t have a lot of in-game experience or depth.

Getting this group to contribute double-digit sacks as a whole would be a great step forward.

Worst Case Scenario:

Noah Burks or Christian Bell don’t live up to their enormous potential. It’s as plain and simple as that.

Wisconsin needs them to become pass-rushing specialists in a big way if this defense is going to be as aggressive as it is designed to be. Often times last season, the inability of the front seven to get pressure really hung an inexperienced secondary out to dry.

If UW experiences more of that, it could really be trouble in 2019. The Badgers need this defense to step up its game, and having both of the expected top contenders in replacing Van Ginkel flame out would be a disaster all the way around.

Most Likely to Happen:

Given all the unknowns surrounding the outside linebacker position, this is a difficult position to predict. However, I will say this — Zack Baun will end up as an All-Big Ten performer.

I believe he just scratched the surface of his potential last year, especially since he was just coming off an awful injury history prior to it. If he stays healthy in 2019, I predict he becomes a surprise player to many outside observers in the Big Ten.

That said, I also believe we will see Christian Bell and Noah Burks become a handful for opposing offensive coordinators to deal with. Both have been patient with the talent that was in front of them, but they are bursting with potential when they have seen the field.

So, to answer the question most want to know…I believe this all signals a position group ready to be a major force once again after that down year in 2018.

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