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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: Preview, predictions and prognostications

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Big lights, Big House, big stage. 

Wisconsin will take on Michigan in the marque matchup in the Big Ten this week. While we’ve give you things to know and what we’ll be watching for now is the time to put it all together. 

How does the Badger and Wolverines clash actually go down? Let’s dive in to the biggest game to date on the Wisconsin 2018 schedule. 

1 Burning Question: Was last week’s defensive effort a sign of things to come for Badgers?

This is a two-sided question. One on side of the question is the fact that we finally saw the Badgers get some major pressure on an opposing quarterback. On the other side of the question is the fact that Wisconsin just gave up over 500 yards of total offense to a bad Nebraska team.

Wisconsin’s defense had Martinez on the run or buried in the backfield for much of the contest last Saturday night and ended the night with two sacks and five tackles for loss. Compared to coming in to the game with just three total sacks (no game with more than one) and just 20 tackles for loss as a team, it was a virtual feast for the Badgers defense. 

Despite that outburst, the Badgers are still dead last in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss — and that is very un-Badger like since the switch to the 3-4 defense earlier in the decade. 

The hope has to be that the new players are finally coming in to their own. But, then there’s the reminder that Nebraska’s offensive line isn’t, well, very good. 

Can the Badgers keep up the pressure while not giving up the big chunk plays it did a week ago? My guess is that this is a sign of things to come and with Shea Patterson nowhere near the level of athlete that Adrian Martinez is, the Badgers may be able to limit his ability to get big plays out of scramble situations. 

But, either way things go the point remains that this defense is likely to dictate what needs to happen for the rest of the team. If the Badgers are going to be successful, they can’t go backwards on the pressure front. 

2 Key Stats

16: Both Michigan and Wisconsin have scored 16 touchdowns inside the red zone this year. 

As much as people want to focus on the defense, both teams have proven to be highly dangerous on offense if they get inside the red zone. In fact, both teams are in the top four of the Big Ten in red zone conversions this year. 

Wisconsin is third in the league, converting on 95 percent of its opportunities, while Michigan is converting at a 88 precent clip. However, Wisconsin’s 16 touchdowns represent all but four (88 percent) of their red zone scores this season compared to Michigan’s 16 touchdowns representing just 64 percent of its red zone production. 

The opportunities inside the opponents 20-yard line could be few and far between, so converting those in to full points will be huge. 

100: Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 100 yards in all five games this season.

It’s no secret that when JT gets going the Badgers become very hard to beat. So far this year, no team has really been able to stop Taylor from impacting a game in a great way for UW. 

Taylor leads the country in rushing average at 169.8 yards per game and he is second in total rushing yards. He only trails Darrel Henderson of Memphis (934) and Jamal Jefferson of Oregon State (865) in rushing yards and does so despite having one fewer game than both of them. 

Michigan’s defense has been up to the task almost all season long against the run, allowing just 17 of their last 32 opponents to go over the 100-yard mark as a team. The Wolverines are 16-1 when holding an opponent under 100 yards on the ground. 

Taylor did go over the 100-yard mark last season, racking up 132 yards on just 19 carries in the Badgers win. However, Michigan did hold him out of the end zone. 

Something is going to have to give in this matchup of quality running back and difficult defense. 

3 Key Players

David Edwards, RT (Wisconsin)

Wisconsin has one of the top-rated offensive lines in the country, but some would say that right tackle David Edwards is having a bit of a down year. In fact, after being a right-side dominant run team in 2017, the Badgers are doing their most damage on the other side of the line this year. 

Given the fact that Hornibrook is left handed and Michigan loves blitzing, Edwards is going to be a key player in the mix on Saturday night. Luckily, the Badgers have given up just 8 sacks so far on the year, a mark that is tied for second in the Big Ten with…Michigan. 

Rashan Gary, NG (Michigan) 

The Wolverines have a ton of quality players on the defensive side of the ball, but its biggest strength has been up the middle. That has been under pressure as of late with some losses to injury and that includes star Rashan Gary. He missed the first game of his career last week, but don’t expect that to happen this week. 

Gary comes in to this game having 22 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks to his name. If Wisconsin can take him out of the game and not allow him to dominate in the middle it could be very helpful to getting the run game going. 

Danny Davis, WR (Wisconsin) 

Michigan is going to come in wanting to stop the run game. So, that means the Badgers wide receivers are going to have to step up to the plate and make them back off the run game. 

The one player who has the best ability to get deep and make Michigan pay one-on-one is Davis. He has only played in three games this season, but so far he is catching up fast with eight receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown. 

He’s due for a breakout game and while doing it against a tough Michigan defense won’t be easy, my money would be on Davis being the one that surprises in this game. 

Prediction: 

Michigan 24, Wisconsin 21

It is tempting to pick the Badgers in this matchup because putting the tape of the Notre Dame game on from earlier in the year reminds me that while Michigan’s vaunted defense can be scary, they don’t do well when the other team actually has the ability to be physical as well. 

So, what is holding me back from picking the Badgers? It ultimately comes down to the lack of experience in the secondary and the amount of injuries piling up on that side of the ball. 

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Chryst excited by Graham Mertz’s future with Badgers

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No recruit has ever been as hyped as quarterback Graham Mertz has been in Wisconsin Badgers history.

Normally that would lead to coaches tempering their words and expectations. Given head coach Paul Chryst’s history of exactly that, it was a bit surprising to hear him speak with excitement about what Mertz may bring to the table in Madison.

So far, Chryst has been very impressed with how Mertz is handling everything on and off the field.

“Yeah, Graham has got a great personality,” said Chryst at Big Ten media day on Friday. “I think he’s done a nice job of — he came in the spring, and getting to know our teammates, and I think he’s handling — there’s a lot of buzz and talk about him, and I think he’s handled it well, and I think the team has handled it, as well.”

What has impressed the head coach most about his freshman quarterback? Chryst says it is how he is handling everything that has been thrown at him since he entered school in January.

“They’re experiencing a lot for the first time, going to school and being away from home, and there’s obviously a ton of football with it, and I think all three have handled it, and Graham has handled it well, and I’m excited for those three, Graham in particular, that went through spring and then you have summer and now they’ll be able to go into fall camp and it’s not all new to them,” said Chryst.

“But I’ve been impressed with how Graham has handled himself, and I think he’s — again, cares a lot about teammates and is a good teammate himself, a good person, and I think that’s a great place to start.”

Perhaps the most telling statement from Chryst during his time at the podium on Friday, was the one where he actually used the words “excitement” and “Graham” in the same sentence.

“And certainly we’re excited, really excited about Graham,” Chryst said to the media. “He’s early in on the process, and so I like the group that we have. I’m thankful that we’ve got Jack coming back that’s played in games, and certainly looking forward to fall camp and seeing the growth and development of all of them.”

Does that mean Mertz is the immediate savior of the Badgers offense? No.

But, unlike years past, Chryst is at least willing to go out on a limb and live in the excitement of what could happen in the future.

This type of talk should only serve to continue to spark the speculation and the spotlight on the quarterback position in Madison in the next few weeks.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers quarterbacks in 2019

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Believe it or not, the start of the Wisconsin Badgers fall camp is right around the corner and we’re hitting the home stretch of our preview season as well.

Previous Positions:Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver | Outside Linebacker | Inside Linebacker |

No position has had more of the spotlight and taken up more of our conversation than what is happening at quarterback. After watching the QB play go from ok to disaster in 2018, it is back to the drawing board in many ways.

With Alex Hornibrook off to Florida State for his final season and the highest rated quarterback recruit in Badgers history on campus, this offseason has been full of intrigue.

But, what will the 2019 season look like for the most critical position on this offense? Let’s take a look at exactly that.

Best Case Scenario

The Badgers find out they hit the jackpot with Graham Mertz and he’s spent the time between spring and fall ball getting up to speed on the offense. Mertz immediately shows this is his job and the coaching staff sees it quickly as well.

Either that or Jack Coan comes in and commands the position and the offense with accuracy and an ability to hit the deep ball. The offense gels around him and heading in to the opener at South Florida, Coan is the man behind center by a wide margin.

Yes, there are two best-case scenarios at play. But, that’s because Wisconsin’s coaching staff would really love for someone to flat-out win the starting job early on in fall camp. Will that happen? That’s the million dollar question and don’t count out Chase Wolf from this competition either. He came on strong as spring went along and his abilities give the Badgers offense some different wrinkles that could be intriguing.

No matter whom wins the battle in fall camp, the best case scenario is that that person wins the battle early, the offense can focus on installing around that quarterback and said quarterback shows why he won the job with quality play during the season.

Worst Case Scenario

If we go in to week three of fall camp and there is no winner to the quarterback job, I’m not so confident in this group. Yes, it’s the job of everyone to compete at a high level, but the coaching staff not being able to separate between the bunch isn’t good news.

My worst-case scenario would be no winner coming out of fall camp, we see quarterbacks splitting time in the fall and this offense stalling out in the pass game once again.

Musical chairs at quarterback never seems to work at Wisconsin and that especially played out last season with Coan clearly thrown to the wolves before he was ready to make a full impact after Hornibrook’s injury.

As long as the Badgers can avoid having to play multiple quarterbacks because none of them have wrestled the position for themselves, UW’s offense should be in a better position in 2019 than it was in 2018.

Most Likely to Happen

As much as the fans want to see Graham Mertz come in and be this game-changing quarterback out of the gate, the most likely scenario is that Mertz gets some game action in the non-conference games and Jack Coan is your regular starter.

I can foresee the scenario playing out much like Coan’s true freshman season. The only difference being that Mertz won’t have to give up his redshirt to play in a single game.

It seems like the most likely to happen scenario is that Coan is your starter for the year with Mertz as the man getting the early season reps behind him and then Chase Wolf being the other option to get reps during conference play.

Let’s not forget that Coan is the only quarterback on this roster that has seen more than a complete mop-up duty. Danny Vanden Boom could be an option too, but it seems like Wolf and Mertz passed him up in the spring competition.

As much as Mertz is the future, coaches are paid to win games now and that likely means playing it safe with Coan.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers ILB’s in 2019

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We hope you enjoyed the Independence Day holiday, but it is time to get back to some business and that means continuing our series looking in to every position group for the 2019 Wisconsin Badgers.

Previous Positions: Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver | Outside Linebacker |

Since we went outside the last time around, today we will focus on a position that has long been a strength of the Badgers program — inside linebacker.

What could happen with this group in 2019? Let’s find out.

Best Case Scenario

Yes, the Badgers face life without an All-American and a steady veteran thanks to the graduations of T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly. But, the good news is that this group was one of the deepest and most productive overall last season.

Veteran Chris Orr will get one starting spot and former 4-star recruit Jack Sanborn will step in to the other starting role. So, the best case scenario for this group is that Orr, who started as a freshman, gets back to that kind of form, and we see quality play from a combination of younger players like Sanborn and freshman Leo Chenal.

No one had a bigger breakout this spring than Chenal did. He came in as an early enrollee, but well under the radar. By the end of spring ball, it looked very much like he won’t be redshirting and will be challenging for a lot of snaps in the fall.

It would be great to see that happen, because Orr has just one year left in the Cardinal and White.

Worst Case Scenario

What would really hurt this group is if Orr or Sanborn were to go down with an injury here. Yes, Chenal looked good in spring ball like I mentioned before and yes Mike Maskalunas has shown flashes of ability, but are they really ready to be thrust in to the majority of snaps at inside linebacker together?

Experience is an issue for this group and I could see an injury exposing that lack of experience in a big way. Even if the Badgers wanted to go with an older player, the only other option would be Seth Currens and he just converted from safety in the spring himself.

Other than that it would be Hunter Johnson or two walk-ons that were here in the spring.

The Badgers only inside linebacker recruit in the 2019 class was Chenal too, so there will be no more help coming in to fall camp.

Most Likely to Happen

The good news is that I don’t see the worst case scenario actually happening, at least not in a major way. Orr’s medical history suggests he could be prone to missing a game or two with a nagging injury, but don’t expect anything crazy to happen.

I also believe we will see the emergence of Sanborn and Chenal as the future of this position for the Badgers. In fact, Sanborn has looked so good in spring and in his limited playing time last season, that I suspect he could be a darkhorse for All-Big Ten honors at season’s end.

Look for this group to be a downhill, hard-hitting and more athletic group than we saw last season and that could make a major difference for those playing behind them.

Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard and his staff have a lot to figure out, but they should feel safe with the talent that is available to them at inside linebacker.

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Best, worst case scenarios for Badgers OLB’s in 2019

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This time next month, the pads may be popping and the 2019 Wisconsin Badgers fall practices will be under way. It’s so close we all can almost taste it.

But, as we look forward to the 2019 season we’re going to try something a bit different. Gone are the usual ways of looking position groups and giving you a fall preview that last’s a week.

Well, that’s because this season is vital to the Paul Chryst era. There’s a changing of the guard going on. After a disappointing 2018 season that saw UW drop Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 15 years and not win the Big Ten West, the question is if that’s a sign of decline or a blip on the radar.

In order to best answer that question, we’re actually going to start with a look at what needs to happen, what the Badgers need to avoid and what is really likely at every position.

Previous Positions: Running Back | Defensive Line | Wide Receiver

Up today is a look at the outside linebacker position.

Best Case Scenario:

Last year, the outside linebackers contributed just 8 total sacks to a team total of 19. That’s a lot of contribution to the effort, but the effort was far below expectations set by previous groups. Additionally, the graduation of Andrew Van Ginkel means just 2.5 sacks return from the outside linebacker position in 2019.

Those sacks belong to Zack Baun, who got his feet wet as a starter last season and is looking for big things to happen in 2019. The good news is that Baun was one of Wisconsin’s best run-stoppers on the edge.

Ideally, Baun not only is a leader of this defensive group in 2019, but becomes much more disruptive behind the line of scrimmage too.

Wisconsin has a lot of potential that could start opposite of him. Former Alabama transfer Christian Bell, former 4-star recruit Noah Burks and former inside linebacker Griffin Grady all had their moments of shine in spring ball.

In a best case scenario, the Badgers have more than one of that group step up as contributors to an overall group of outside linebackers that don’t have a lot of in-game experience or depth.

Getting this group to contribute double-digit sacks as a whole would be a great step forward.

Worst Case Scenario:

Noah Burks or Christian Bell don’t live up to their enormous potential. It’s as plain and simple as that.

Wisconsin needs them to become pass-rushing specialists in a big way if this defense is going to be as aggressive as it is designed to be. Often times last season, the inability of the front seven to get pressure really hung an inexperienced secondary out to dry.

If UW experiences more of that, it could really be trouble in 2019. The Badgers need this defense to step up its game, and having both of the expected top contenders in replacing Van Ginkel flame out would be a disaster all the way around.

Most Likely to Happen:

Given all the unknowns surrounding the outside linebacker position, this is a difficult position to predict. However, I will say this — Zack Baun will end up as an All-Big Ten performer.

I believe he just scratched the surface of his potential last year, especially since he was just coming off an awful injury history prior to it. If he stays healthy in 2019, I predict he becomes a surprise player to many outside observers in the Big Ten.

That said, I also believe we will see Christian Bell and Noah Burks become a handful for opposing offensive coordinators to deal with. Both have been patient with the talent that was in front of them, but they are bursting with potential when they have seen the field.

So, to answer the question most want to know…I believe this all signals a position group ready to be a major force once again after that down year in 2018.

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